Stillwater, Oklahoma, has been a tough locale for Iowa State football over the past 15 years or so. The Cyclones have not beaten Oklahoma State on its home field since 2000, a memorable 33-26 ISU victory punctuated by a late touchdown pass from Sage Rosenfels to Lane Danielsen to win it.
Since then, it’s been 36-7, 59-17, 31-10 and 37-20 - all lopsided Iowa State losses. Can this year’s 1-4/0-2 Cyclone team change that? It's improvement from week one through week five suggests that it can and will give Oklahoma State a decent run for its money this weekend. Here’s The Ultimate Preview.
Iowa State Rush Offense vs. Oklahoma State Rush Defense
The Cyclones netted over 200 rushing yards for the first time in a game last week in the 45-42 loss to Baylor. But most of that came in the first half and by game’s end, ISU had averaged less than four yards per attempt (3.8). So even though it was a positive game overall for running the ball, there were some caveats. Mike Warren had his best game of the season, finishing with 130 yards on 30 carries. For the season, Iowa State is now averaging 141.2 rush yards per game and 3.7 yards per attempt.
Oklahoma State has shown vulnerability against the run this fall. Last week, Texas had two individual rushers over 100 yards and the Longhorns piled up 329 net rushing yards against OSU while averaging a whopping 6.7 yards per rush. On the season, the Cowboys are yielding over 180 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per attempt. Iowa State should be able to find some success on the ground against the Pokes.
Advantage: Slight Iowa State
Iowa State Pass Offense vs. Oklahoma State Pass Defense
There’s little question that Joel Lanning had his best game as Iowa State’s quarterback last week in the loss to Baylor. He completed 17-of-23 passes for 261 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Lanning’s performance was so strong that Jacob Park never got into the game as planned and don’t forget, he had a great day throwing the football a week earlier in the win over San Jose State. The Cyclone receiving corps was impressive vs. Baylor, too, making several tough catches with up-and-comers Deshaunte Jones and Carson Epps both breaking short completions for long scoring plays. Pass protection by the O line was solid as well (one sack). For the season, Iowa State is now averaging just over eight yards per pass with Lanning and Park combining to complete nearly 60 percent of their throws for 243 yards per game.
Oklahoma State’s pass defense held up fairly well against Texas, but that isn’t what the Longhorns do especially well with a freshman quarterback in Shane Buechele. He’s good, but he’s still a rookie and passed for 239 in Stillwater a week ago. The Cowboys came up with one INT and also recorded two sacks. On the year, OSU is yielding over nine yards per pass attempt and over 267 passing yards per game with opposing QBs completing about 60 percent of attempts. The Pokes have surrendered ten TD passes and come up with four INTs. Iowa State should be able to take this phase as well.
Advantage: Slight Iowa State
Iowa State Rush Defense vs. Oklahoma State Rush Offense
It was a bad day for Iowa State’s rush defense last week as Baylor’s Shock Linwood and friends went off to shred the Cyclones for 469 total rushing yards at 7.6 yards per carry. Linwood alone had 237 yards and Terence Williams was over 100 as well (126). BU QB Seth Russell hurt the Cyclones with his legs as well and finished with 88 yards, most in scramble situations. There was really nothing positive about how I-State defended the run a week ago. On the season, Iowa State is now yielding 261 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry.
Oklahoma State was serviceable on the ground a week ago as it beat Texas, 49-31. The Cowboys netted 163 rushing yards on 43 carries, or 3.8 yards per attempt. Nothing spectacular, but certainly good enough to compliment a very effective passing attack. Justice Hill had 135 of OSU’s rushing yards and he has emerged as Oklahoma State’s feature back, but still carries it less than 15 times a game. For the year, O-State is averaging 134 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry. It’s not the focal point of the Cowboy offense, but it should be good enough to win the day versus the Cyclones.
Advantage: Moderate Oklahoma State
Iowa State Pass Defense vs. Oklahoma State Pass Offense
Part of Baylor’s rushing success last Saturday could be attributed to Iowa State’s commitment decision to minimize what Russell could do through the air. ISU often deployed six defensive backs against the Bears. The end result was a poor rush defense performance, but the pass defense numbers were pretty good. Russell completed 12-of-22 passes for 178 yards. Unfortunately, it was still good for 8.1 yards per pass as he hit a couple of big ones, covering 57 and 46 yards. On the season, ISU is allowing only 6.8 yards per pass and 191.4 yards per game while holding opposing QBs to about 58 percent on completions.
Oklahoma State has the best passing game the Cyclones will set to this point in the season and quite likely, all year. Mason Rudolph torched Texas for 392 passing yards with three TDs and no INTs. And he only threw the ball 28 times, completing 19. By game’s end, Rudolph had averaged a gaudy 14 yards per pass attempt. And he spread the wealth as five different receivers had at least three catches with Jalen McCleskey and James Washington both amassing over 90 yards receiving. On the year, Oklahoma State is averaging 8.8 yards per pass and over 350 pass yards per game, completing nearly 63 percent of attempts. The Cyclone pass defense is good, but it will be severely tested this week.
Advantage: Moderate Oklahoma State
Iowa State Special Teams vs. Oklahoma State Special Teams
Special teams didn’t play as large of a role as Iowa State might have wanted last week against Baylor, but the Cyclones were still good. Colin Downing averaged 51 yards on three punts and killed all of them inside the 20. Chris Francis generated five touchbacks on seven kickoffs and Kene Nwangwu averaged over 26 yards per kickoff return with a long of 45. And ISU’s kickoff coverage team yielded just 17 yards per return.
Oklahoma State has a solid field goal duo in Ben Grogan (7-9) and Matt Ammendola (made 53-yarder). Ammendola is also 12-for-32 generating touchbacks on kickoffs. Punter Zach Sinor averages over 44 yards. The Cowboys have not been impressive on kickoff returns, averaging only about 16 yards. The punt return game is much better, with nearly as high an average (15.3). Overall, Iowa State has the special teams edge.
Advantage: Slight Iowa State
The Last Word
On the presumption that Iowa State will continue its pattern of playing better each week, it should be as competitive at OSU as it has been in a long time. There’s no question the Cowboys should be favored on their home field, but that doesn’t mean ISU can’t make it a four-quarter game. Offensively, the Cyclones will need to play at the level they showed for three quarters last week against Baylor. But naturally, they can’t afford the fourth quarter failure that cost them the BU game (and similarly cost them at home against OSU just last year).
The Cowboys will score points with their potent passing attack and ISU has to try to keep pace. The Iowa State defense will do all that it can to limit Rudolph and the O-State passing attack while giving up some things on the ground. It will be like the game plan from a week ago, but should actually work a little better this week. I-State will use six defensive backs for much of the game and dare Oklahoma State to run the football more than it typically wants to. How effective that is for Iowa State will go a long way in deciding the game. In the end, O-State should prevail at home, but expect it to be a competitive game.
Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 36, Iowa State 27
Ultimate Preview 2016 Review
Prediction: Baylor 35, Iowa State 23 (actual Baylor 45-42)
Prediction: Iowa State 33, San Jose State 27 (actual ISU 44-10)
Prediction: TCU 45, Iowa State 13 (actual TCU 41-20)
Prediction: Iowa 34, Iowa State 10 (actual Iowa 42-3)
Prediction: Iowa State 30, UNI 20 (actual UNI 25-20)
