Cyclones on guard against upset
Iowa is capable of coming into Hilton Coliseum and stealing a win from No. 2/No. 4 Iowa State tonight.
The Hawkeyes are 7-2 and went 3-2 during a five-game stretch against somewhat quality opponents. Iowa defeated Wichita State in a neutral site game and also won big at Marquette and came home to Iowa City to take down Florida State in overtime in the Big 10/ACC challenge. The two Hawk losses were to Dayton and Notre Dame in neutral site games and both were close.
Iowa State is 7-0 and has played three high major opponents itself. The Cyclones beat Colorado in a neutral site game to open the season and the Buffaloes have not lost again since. ISU also took down Virginia Tech and Illinois in back-to-back neutral site games to claim the Emerald Coast Classic. And one of Iowa State's low-major home wins - Chattanooga - is a likely NCAA tourney qualifier.
Jared Uthoff leads the Iowa attack, averaging over 18 points per game and hitting nearly 49 percent of his three-point attempts. Peter Jok is averaging nearly 13 points for the Hawks and Adam Woodbury, Anthony Clemmons and Dom Uhl all average over eight points per game. Iowa is shooting 47.3% from the field overall and 40.2% from three-point range. The Hawkeyes also make over 71 percent of their free throws. Point guard Mike Gesell is averaging 6.9 assists per game and has a 3.1:1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
The Hawkeyes have held opponents around 67 points per game while scoring nearly 84 of their own. Iowa's defensive field goal percentages are 38.6% overall and 28.4% on three-pointers. Opponents' assist-to-turnover ratio is less than 1:1 for Iowa (113-124) and the Hawks are +3.1 in rebounding, including a little above average on the defensive end (69.7%) and slightly below average on the offensive end (32.2%).
The Cyclones have displayed a lethal and efficient offensive attack so far this season with five players averaging in double figures and five of their top six scorers shooting 53 percent of better from the floor. Georges Niang is ISU's leading scorer at 18.6 points per game with Monte Morris and Abdel Nader averaging 14.9 and 14.6 points per game, respectively. Jameel McKay checks in at 13.9 and Naz Mitrou-Long at 12.9. Morris has a 5.1:1 assist-to-turnover ratio at the point and is averaging over seven assists per game, including 10 the last time out.
After being held to 68 points in the opener vs. CU, I-State has scored at least 83 points in every game and is averaging nearly 87 points per game on the year, and 90 per game in the last six. The Cyclones are shooting 51.7% from the field overall, including 37.7% from three-point range. Iowa State has lagged at the free throw line, making only 64.4% to date.
An improved ISU defense is giving up 66.6 points per game and has held four of six opponents in the 60s. Opponents have shot 38.3% from the floor overall and 29.3% from three-point range with an assist-to-turnover ratio well below 1:1 (73-96). Iowa State is +6.7 in rebounding with an obvious focus on the defensive end. The Cyclones have claimed a whopping 77.4% of defensive rebounds, but have only grabbed 25.4% on the offensive glass.
Both teams like to play an up tempo style and that favors Iowa State. And if the Hawkeyes try to slow it down, they'll be getting away from what they want to do. But it might be their best opportunity to keep the Cyclones from running away with the tempo and the game. Uthoff and Jok are capable of having hot nights and leading Iowa to the upset if I-State is misfiring a little bit on offense and the score stays in the low-to-mid 70s.
Iowa State will rely on its potent balance to try to outscore the Hawkeyes. It will be Jameel McKay's first and only game against Iowa and he has the athletic potential to have a huge game by playing so much faster and higher than the Hawks' lumbering bigs. ISU will need contributions from all seven in its rotation, including a defensive focus on Uthoff and, to a lesser extent, Jok.
The Cyclones have beaten Iowa six straight times in Ames, not having lost since the ugly 54-53 NIT game in the spring of 2003. Iowa State has won five-of-six overall in the series dating back to the 2009-10 season, but two of the wins were three-point games that could have gone either way. ISU won by 15 last year in Iowa City and also won by 10 in Ames in both 2011 and 2009.
It's Iowa State's game to lose and certainly there is more pressure on the Cyclones to defend their home court, their undefeated record and their high national ranking. The underdog role should suit Iowa just fine. Look for the game to follow a script similar to the Illinois and Buffalo games for I-State where it's tight into the second half and then ISU makes a concerted effort to tighten up on defense and pulls away a little bit from there.
Final Score Prediction: Iowa State 81, Iowa 74