CycloneReport.com - A closer look at Big 12 bowl scramble

October 29, 2009

Paul Clark
CycloneReport.com Publisher

Bowl projections are a dime a dozen this time of year, don't mean anything, and usually all look about the same and prove to all be about as inaccurate by the time the actual bowl invitations go out. Rather than participate in a meaningless exercise on the national scope, I'm going to zoom in and participate in a meaningless exercise for the Big 12 only.

All but a couple of national media outlets have wised up and included Iowa State in their latest bowl projections. Some have the Cyclones going to the Texas Bowl to face Navy while others have the Cyclones going to the Independence Bowl to face Auburn. Obviously I was ahead of the curve in projecting that latter match-up a few days ago and now at least some of the national experts are catching up with me. Both the Texas and Independence bowls are very plausible options for Iowa State.

The Big 12 bowl pecking order depends on a lot of things. It's not just how the teams finish in the conference standings because there is no one set of conference standings. So the bowls have some latitude and some flexibility in who they pick, while the conference also has plenty of say in who gets picked, too. In general, a conference wants its season long competition to mean something so it will typically try to get the teams chosen in close to the order of perceived strength and accomplishment, even if that requires an awkward melding of the separation divisions into one pool of teams.

The conference champion is decided on the field and that team goes to the BCS. It's likely that Texas will prevail in that arena and it's likely the Longhorns will be the Big 12's one and only BCS representative this year. The Cotton Bowl gets second pick from the conference and if any team from the North finishes strong and really deserves its spot in the Big 12 title game and is competitive there, then the North division champ deserves the Cotton Bowl invite. In lieu of that, the second best team in the south will go here, probably Oklahoma State.

The same line of thinking holds true for the number three bowl in the selection order, the Holiday Bowl. A Big 12 North team that wins the division with some style points (such as a 4-0 or 5-0 stretch run from here on out) and then at least puts up a fight in the Big 12 title game will warrant an invitation to San Diego. If no such North team emerges, then probably Oklahoma gets this berth. The North champ can fall no lower than the Alamo Bowl, so it may have to settle for that depending on what November and the first weekend in December hold for us.

So who will win the North? Anyone who tells you they know is full of shinola. The current last place team in the division (Missouri at 0-3) could just as easily take it as the current first place team (Kansas State at 3-1). It's that up for grabs. I have my own hunches, my own expectations, for what will happen the next few weeks and which team will win the North. Without naming names, what most likely happens is that someone ends up on top rather than seizing the top spot. And that team will limp into the Big 12 title game and get whacked by Texas (or perhaps Oklahoma State). Long story short: Alamo Bowl for the North champ.

Then will come a jumble of teams for the remaining four automatic bids. In my opinion, Iowa State, Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri will be bowl eligible from the North. One will be the division champ. The other three will be in the scramble for an invitation to the Sun, Insight, Independence or Texas bowls. Joining them in that scramble will likely be Texas Tech and Texas A&M. That's five teams for four slots. But relax, fans of those teams that end up 6-6. A 6-6 Big 12 team will be one of the first taken after all 7-5 teams are plugged in somewhere and with the glut (34!) of bowl games this winter, it's unlikely any eligible Big 12 teams get left home for the holidays.

So here goes nothing. With the North such a jumble that I am going to name teams North #1 through North #4, here is how I see the bowl picture coming into focus for the Big 12 on the evening of December 6th, when bowl invitations are made official:

BCS - Texas
Cotton - Oklahoma State
Holiday - Oklahoma
Alamo - North #1 (ISU, KU, MU or NU)
Sun - Texas Tech
Insight - North #2
Independence - North #3
Texas - Texas A&M
At-Large - North #4

Needless to say, there's a lot still to be sorted out in the next six weeks. Which is why bowl projections are indeed mostly pointless in October. But they are fun. So enjoy all the various opinions and try not to get your shorts in a wad over any of them. Iowa State will or will not play its way into a bowl in 2009. Nobody's projection changes that reality.

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